2026 Exit Polls, NBC National Exit Poll Results, Midterm Election Exit Polls and What They Mean

Millions of Americans are searching the same questions today. Who is voting? Which party is gaining support? How much is the economy driving votes? Is President Donald Trump’s administration shaping the midterm outcome? And what could the results mean for control of Congress?

Exit polls help answer those questions, but they cannot establish who won an election. This guide explains what the 2026 exit polls are, who conducts them, when data is expected, what the pre-election polling already shows, and the laws and court decisions that govern exit polling at and around polling places.

Quick Facts

Detail	Information
Election Day	Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Election type	U.S. midterm elections (no presidential race)
Exit-poll operator	SSRS (“The Voter Poll by SSRS”)
Participating news organizations	NBC News, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, MS NOW and the Associated Press
National survey coverage	All 50 states
State-level voter findings	45 states with a U.S. Senate or gubernatorial race
Pre-election interviews	Approximately 75,000
In-person Election Day interviews	Approximately 25,000 across 15 states
First scheduled data release	After 5 p.m. Eastern Time
Do exit polls decide winners?	No. Official results come from counted ballots and state certification
Is exit-poll participation mandatory?	No. It is voluntary for every voter

Are the 2026 Exit Polls Available Yet?

As of Election Day afternoon, full exit-poll findings are not publicly available. The participating networks scheduled the first data release for after 5 p.m. Eastern Time on November 3, and they hold back any information that could signal the outcome of a race in a state until polls in that state have closed.

An NBC News exit-poll page appearing in search results does not mean findings or winners have already been published. Early numbers are also not final: estimates are re-weighted through the evening as more interviews are completed and as actual vote returns arrive. The first truly informative national breakdowns are generally expected in the evening hours once larger states begin to close their polls.

The pause before data appears is a long-standing industry practice. It is a voluntary embargo by the news organizations, not a federal statute.

What Is an Exit Poll?

An exit poll is a survey of people who have voted. Traditionally, interviewers approach randomly selected voters as they leave a polling place and invite them to complete a short, anonymous questionnaire. Participation is voluntary, and voters are free to decline.

The questions cover three areas:

• Vote choice: which candidates the voter supported for House, Senate or governor.
• Demographics: age, sex, race and ethnicity, education, income and similar characteristics.
• Opinions and motivations: the issues that mattered most, views of the president and the direction of the country.

Exit polls matter because the American ballot is secret. Election officials count votes but do not publish who voted and what each voter’s background or motivations were. Surveys fill that gap, which lets journalists explain why an election turned out the way it did, not only who won.

A Short History of Exit Polling in the United States

Modern exit polling is generally credited to pollster Warren Mitofsky, who helped develop the method for CBS News in the late 1960s. For decades, major networks pooled resources into shared consortiums to conduct exit polls and project race outcomes.

The system has been reformed more than once. Problems with early projections in the 2000 presidential election and technical failures in the early 2000s led to the dissolution of the old Voter News Service and the creation of a new National Election Pool. Later, the Associated Press developed AP VoteCast, a large survey that combined interviews conducted before and on Election Day to capture early and mail voters.

The 2026 midterms bring another change: a single shared research operation, The Voter Poll by SSRS, serving all of the major networks and the AP together.

The Biggest Change in 2026: The Voter Poll by SSRS

The 2026 voter survey blends traditional in-person exit polling with a much larger survey conducted before Election Day. The reason is simple: a large share of Americans no longer vote at a polling place on Election Day. Early in-person voting and mail ballots now account for a very large portion of all votes, so a survey that interviews only people leaving polling places would miss a substantial part of the electorate.

How big is the 2026 survey?

The AP reports approximately 75,000 interviews conducted in the run-up to Election Day, plus approximately 25,000 in-person interviews at polling places in 15 states, for roughly 100,000 planned interviews in total.

The in-person component covers voters in Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin.

The pre-election survey reaches all 50 states. Separate state-level findings are produced for the 45 states that hold a U.S. Senate or gubernatorial contest; the remaining five states are included in the national survey only.

How are voters selected and verified?

Researchers reach people through invitations to randomly selected registered voters, telephone interviews, text messages, online surveys and established research panels. Respondents are matched to voter-registration records to verify registration and to confirm whether they actually voted. Voters who had not yet voted when first contacted may be re-contacted around Election Day. The different sources are then combined and statistically adjusted to reflect the expected electorate.

What the survey will and will not publish

The AP has explained that the Voter Poll is designed to show how groups of voters behaved and why, rather than to publish an overall topline of how many voters backed each party. The AP also states that it does not call races based on Voter Poll results alone. In other words, this is an analytical tool, not a vote count.

What the Exit Polls Will Examine

Expect breakdowns on the following subjects as data is released:

• Cost of living and the economy: how voters rate economic conditions and whether household finances shaped their vote.
• Views of President Trump: whether voters saw their ballot as support for, opposition to, or unrelated to the president.
• Immigration, healthcare, crime and public safety, and foreign policy: how each issue ranks and how views differ across groups.
• Demographic divides: gender (including the gap among white women), education (college versus non-college), age (including youth turnout), race and ethnicity, and urban, suburban and rural differences.
• Independents: which way voters who do not identify with either party broke.

What Pre-Election Polling Showed Heading Into Election Day

It is important to keep pre-election polls separate from exit polls. Pre-election surveys ask people how they plan to vote. Exit-poll research focuses on people who have voted.

The main pre-election findings were as follows:

• NBC News poll (October 24 to 28, 2026): Of 1,000 registered voters surveyed (margin of error 3.1 percentage points), 50% said they wanted a Congress controlled by Democrats and 42% a Congress controlled by Republicans. Forty percent said their congressional vote would represent opposition to President Trump, 30% said support for him, and 29% said it would not be a signal either way.
• Reuters/Ipsos (late October 2026): President Trump’s approval stood at 32%, near the lowest level recorded in either of his terms, and registered voters favored Democrats over Republicans for Congress by roughly 47% to 36%.
• Reuters/Ipsos issue findings: In a survey of 1,765 U.S. adults, 48% of registered voters named the cost of living as their most important issue, 26% named democratic norms and 13% named immigration.

These are pre-election findings, not exit-poll results. Polls also carry margins of error, differ by pollster and method, and have missed in past elections, so they should not be treated as predictions of the result.

What Is at Stake on November 3, 2026

According to the Associated Press, the 2026 ballot includes:

• 35 U.S. Senate contests.
• All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.
• 36 gubernatorial races.
• 5,587 state legislative races.

Republicans entered Election Day with narrow majorities in Congress, including a 53-47 majority in the Senate. Control of Congress affects federal legislation, spending, oversight and confirmations for the remaining two years of the current presidential term. Under federal law, Election Day for the House is the Tuesday after the first Monday in November (2 U.S.C. § 7), and members of the Senate are chosen by direct popular vote under the Seventeenth Amendment.

Early and Mail Voting in 2026

Early voting has been heavy in 2026. The University of Florida Election Lab counted more than 35 million early votes as of October 27, and later tallies reported more than 48 million by the end of October, ahead of the pace in the 2022 midterms, when more than 43 million Americans voted before Election Day. Totals vary by tracker and methodology and keep rising, so readers should rely on the latest official state data and trackers rather than a single figure.

Early voting data shows how and when people are voting. It does not show which party is winning, because ballots are not counted by party and early and Election Day voters can differ.

When Will Results Be Released? Poll-Closing Times by State

Polls close at different times across the country. Times below are Eastern Time and approximate, because some states close at different times in different regions. Always confirm hours with your state or local election office.

Eastern Time	Examples of poll-closing locations
6 p.m.	Parts of Indiana and Kentucky
7 p.m.	Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, most of Florida
7:30 p.m.	North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
8 p.m.	Pennsylvania, most of Michigan, Alabama, Illinois, Missouri, parts of Texas and the Florida Panhandle
9 p.m.	Wisconsin, Arizona, Minnesota, New York, Colorado and several other states
10 p.m.	Iowa, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, Utah and others
11 p.m.	California, Oregon, Washington and parts of Idaho
Midnight and later	Hawaii and Alaska

The schedule explains why early-evening exit-poll data covers only certain states, and why national conclusions cannot be drawn until later. It is also why the networks hold back any exit-poll information that could reveal how a race is going until voting ends in that state.

Can Exit Polls Tell Us Who Won Congress?

No. Exit polls can show which groups backed which party and what motivated voters, but control of the House and Senate depends on actual ballots counted in individual races. Exit-poll estimates are also subject to sampling error and non-response bias. They can shift during the night and, in close races, can differ from the final count.

Keep four terms apart:

1. Exit-poll estimate: a survey-based estimate of voter behavior.
2. Unofficial election-night count: partial returns reported as ballots are tabulated.
3. Media projection or race call: a news organization’s judgment, based on votes counted and statistical analysis, that a candidate has won.
4. Certified result: the official outcome after the legally required canvass.

Exit polls	Official election results
Based on surveys of voters	Based on actual ballots
Explain voter motivations and demographics	Establish vote totals
Can change as interviews are added	Updated through official counting and canvass
Do not determine winners	Determine winners once certified
Run by research organizations and news partners	Administered by state and local election authorities

The Law of Exit Polling: Your Rights and the Limits

Although this article is about election coverage rather than a lawsuit, exit polling sits at the intersection of two constitutional interests: freedom of speech and of the press under the First Amendment, and each state’s interest in keeping polling places orderly and free from intimidation. Election administration is largely governed by state law, so rules differ from state to state.

Key court decisions

Daily Herald Co. v. Munro, 838 F.2d 380 (9th Cir. 1988). Washington State prohibited exit polling within 300 feet of a polling place. News organizations, including major networks and newspapers, challenged the law. The Ninth Circuit held the ban unconstitutional as applied, recognizing that interviewing voters about how they voted is protected speech and newsgathering. This is a federal appellate decision binding in the Ninth Circuit; it is not a nationwide Supreme Court ruling guaranteeing exit-poll access everywhere.

Burson v. Freeman, 504 U.S. 191 (1992). The U.S. Supreme Court, in a plurality opinion, upheld a Tennessee law banning the solicitation of votes and the display or distribution of campaign materials within 100 feet of polling-place entrances. The Court recognized compelling state interests in preventing voter intimidation and election fraud. Burson was not an exit-polling case, but it is the leading authority on how much speech restriction states may impose near polling places.

Mills v. Alabama, 384 U.S. 214 (1966). The Supreme Court struck down a law that made it a crime for a newspaper to publish election-day editorials urging votes. It remains an important precedent protecting press speech about elections on Election Day itself.

Minnesota Voters Alliance v. Mansky, 585 U.S. 1 (2018). The Supreme Court held that Minnesota’s ban on political apparel inside polling places was unconstitutionally vague, while confirming that a polling place is a nonpublic forum in which states may impose reasonable, viewpoint-neutral restrictions.

In re Attorney General’s Directive on Exit Polling, 200 N.J. 283 (2009). The New Jersey Supreme Court upheld the state’s 100-foot protected zone around polling places as applied to exit polling and related expressive activity, finding that the state could keep an unobstructed passage for voters. It shows that courts in different jurisdictions can reach different conclusions on how far exit pollsters can be restricted.

State rules differ

There is no single nationwide buffer distance for exit pollsters. Many states set a buffer zone, commonly in the range of 25 to 100 feet or more, around polling-place entrances within which electioneering, solicitation or other activity is restricted. Whether exit-poll interviews fall inside that restriction depends on the state’s statute, how the law is written, and how courts have applied it. Survey organizations generally coordinate with local election officials and position interviewers outside the applicable zone.

Federal laws protecting voters

Several federal laws protect voters, including voters approached by interviewers:

• Voting Rights Act, 52 U.S.C. § 10307(b): prohibits intimidating, threatening or coercing any person for voting or attempting to vote.
• 18 U.S.C. § 594: makes it a federal crime to intimidate, threaten or coerce a person for the purpose of interfering with the right to vote in a federal election.
• Help America Vote Act, 52 U.S.C. § 21082: guarantees the right to cast a provisional ballot if your eligibility is questioned.

What this means for voters

• You can decline to answer an exit-poll question. Participation is voluntary.
• Your ballot is secret. You are not required to tell anyone how you voted.
• Exit pollsters cannot enter the voting area, interfere with voting, or pressure you.
• If you are intimidated or obstructed at a polling place, report it to poll workers or your local election office. The Election Protection hotline, 866-OUR-VOTE (866-687-8683), also provides help to voters.
• If you are in line when polls close, state law generally allows you to remain in line and vote, but rules differ by state, so verify with your local election office.

Why 2026 Exit-Poll Data Needs Careful Reading

• Sampling error and weighting: Results are estimates with margins of error. Subgroup findings, such as one demographic in one state, carry larger errors.
• Early data can shift: Initial releases are updated as more interviews arrive and as vote counts come in.
• Method changes: The 2026 system blends pre-election and Election Day interviews, so comparisons with exit polls from earlier years should be made carefully.
• Not a prediction: Exit polls explain an electorate; they do not certify an outcome.

What to Watch For

1. Which issues dominated? Whether cost of living, healthcare, immigration, crime or democratic norms drove the vote.
2. Which groups moved? Shifts among independents, women, college-educated voters, suburban voters and younger voters.
3. How did voters view national leadership? Midterms are frequently a referendum on the president’s party.

Where to Follow the Exit Polls and Official Results

For exit-poll breakdowns, use the dedicated pages of NBC News, the Associated Press and SSRS. For the actual outcome, rely on your state or county election office and the Secretary of State’s website for official returns and certification timelines. See the Sources section below for the pages used in preparing this article.

Frequently Asked Questions About the 2026 Exit Polls

Are the 2026 exit polls available yet?

The first Voter Poll data was scheduled for release after 5 p.m. Eastern Time on November 3. Data that could signal who is winning a particular race is held until polls close in that state.

Who conducts the 2026 national exit polls?

SSRS conducts The Voter Poll for NBC News, ABC News, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, MS NOW and the Associated Press.

How many voters are surveyed?

Approximately 75,000 pre-election interviews and about 25,000 in-person Election Day interviews in 15 states, or roughly 100,000 planned interviews in total.

Are early and mail-in voters included?

Yes. The pre-election portion of the survey is designed to capture people who vote early or by mail.

Can exit polls tell us whether Democrats or Republicans won Congress?

No. Control of Congress is determined by the certified results of individual House and Senate races.

Are exit polls accurate?

They are useful estimates, but they carry sampling error and can differ from final results, especially in close races. That is why they are not used on their own to call races.

Do I have to answer an exit-poll interviewer?

No. Participation is voluntary, and your ballot is secret.

Is it legal to conduct exit polls near polling places?

It depends on the state. The First Amendment protects newsgathering, as recognized in cases such as Daily Herald Co. v. Munro, but states may enforce reasonable, viewpoint-neutral rules to protect voters, and courts have reached different results on buffer zones. There is no single nationwide distance.

Is there a nationwide 100-foot rule for exit pollsters?

No. Burson v. Freeman upheld a Tennessee 100-foot zone for campaign activity, but it did not create a nationwide rule for exit polling. Rules vary by state.

Are exit polls legally binding?

No. Exit polls are surveys. They do not decide elections or replace the counting and certification process.

Is Donald Trump on the ballot in 2026?

No. The 2026 election is a midterm. However, voters’ opinions of his administration may influence congressional and state races.

When will official results be available?

Unofficial results begin arriving after polls close. Complete and certified results depend on the state, outstanding mail and provisional ballots, canvass deadlines and any recounts or legal challenges, and in close races can take days or weeks.

Final Takeaway

The 2026 exit polls offer a closer look at the people behind the results. The new SSRS system, which combines large pre-election interviews with traditional in-person polling, is designed to reflect how Americans really vote today. The most valuable information will not be which party looks ahead on election night, but which issues and which groups shaped the outcome. Exit polls explain elections; the official, certified count of ballots decides them.

Sources and Legal Authorities

1. NBC News, National Exit Polls: Election 2026 Results: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elections/exit-polls
2. Associated Press, What to Know About the AP Voter Poll: https://apnews.com/article/2026-election-exit-poll-election-poll-voter-poll-voting-midterms-elections-d48c530693af9eecac859fe30ef19d02
3. Associated Press, How We Survey the Electorate: https://www.ap.org/elections/our-role-in-the-u-s-elections/how-we-survey-the-electorate/
4. SSRS, The Voter Poll: https://ssrs.com/ssrs-solutions/voter-poll/
5. Reuters, Nine Things on U.S. Voters’ Minds Ahead of Midterm Elections, According to Reuters/Ipsos Poll: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/nine-things-us-voters-minds-ahead-midterm-elections-according-reutersipsos-poll-2026-11-03/
6. Reuters/Ipsos, Trump approval rises from record low to 32% (via Kathmandu Post): https://kathmandupost.com/world/2026/10/27/trump-approval-rises-from-record-low-to-32-ahead-of-midterm-election-reuters-ipsos-poll-finds
7. NBC News poll, October 24 to 28, 2026 (reported by The Hill via AOL): https://www.aol.com/news/democrats-8-points-generic-ballot-141944584.html
8. Political.org, Midterm campaigns make final push as more than 35 million early voters have already cast ballots: https://political.org/2026/10/28/midterm-campaigns-make-final-push-as-more-than-35-million-early-voters-have-already-cast-ballots/
9. VOZ, Early voting for midterms breaks 2022 record: https://voz.us/en/politics/261030/1000205/early-voting-midterms-2026-breaks-the-record.html
10. CBS News, 2026 Midterm Election Polling Hours: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/when-polls-open-close-2026-midterm-elections/
11. USA.gov, Voting and Elections: https://www.usa.gov/voting
12. Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press, Election Legal Guide: https://www.rcfp.org/resources/election-legal-guide/
13. Daily Herald Co. v. Munro, 838 F.2d 380 (9th Cir. 1988): https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/appellate-courts/F2/838/380/281437/
14. Burson v. Freeman, 504 U.S. 191 (1992): https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/504/191
15. Mills v. Alabama, 384 U.S. 214 (1966): https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/384/214/
16. Minnesota Voters Alliance v. Mansky, 585 U.S. 1 (2018): https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/585/16-1435/
17. In re Attorney General’s Directive on Exit Polling, 200 N.J. 283 (2009): https://law.justia.com/cases/new-jersey/supreme-court/2007/a-47-08-opn.html
18. 52 U.S.C. § 10307 (Voting Rights Act, prohibited acts): https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/52/10307
19. 18 U.S.C. § 594 (intimidation of voters): https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/594
20. 2 U.S.C. § 7 (Election Day for Representatives): https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/2/7

This article is for general informational purposes only and is not legal advice. Election laws vary by state and change over time; confirm rules with your state or local election office. AllAboutLawyer.com is an independent legal information website, not a law firm.

Updated November 3, 2026. This is an election-news and voter-information article, not a lawsuit. It will be updated as official data is released.